Economic improvement in the United States will continue in 2025, say the nation’s purchasing and supply management executives in the December 2024 Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Supply Chain Planning Forecast, formerly known as the Semiannual Economic Forecast.
Revenues are expected to increase in 17 of 18 manufacturing industries and 16 of 18 services-sector industries. Capital expenditures are expected to increase by 5.2 percent in the manufacturing sector (after a 5.6-percent increase in 2024) and increase by 5.1 percent in the services sector (after a 2.8-percent increase in 2024). In 2025, employment is expected to grow by 0.8 percent in manufacturing and 0.8 percent in services. After projected growth in manufacturing and services in the first half (H1) of the year, growth in the second half (H2) is projected to accelerate in manufacturing and maintain momentum in the services sector.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by ISM’s Business Survey panelists. The forecast was released by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
Expectations for 2025 are positive, as 60 percent of survey respondents expect revenues to be greater in 2025 than in 2024. The panel of purchasing and supply executives expects a 4.2-percent net increase in overall revenues for 2025, compared to a 0.8 percentage point increase reported for 2024. Sixteen of the 18 manufacturing industries expect revenue improvement in 2025, listed in order of largest to smallest projected increase: Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
“Manufacturing’s purchasing and supply executives expect to see overall growth in 2025. They are optimistic about overall business prospects for the first half of 2025 and more excited about faster growth in the second half. Manufacturing grew for 28 consecutive months from June 2020 through September 2022, was unchanged in October and dipped into contraction in November 2022. The index has remained in contraction since, except for a reading of 50.3 percent in March 2024. Respondents expect raw materials pricing pressure to ease in 2025 and see first-half 2025 profit margins improving over the second half of 2024. Wages and employment will continue to grow. Manufacturers also predict growth in both exports and imports in 2025,” says Fiore.
